Why the coming midterm elections loom as a threat to our democracy

Since Donald Trump’s arrival on the political scene, we’ve grown numb to the use of words like “consequential” or “historic” to describe elections in the United States. As overused as these terms may be, the 2026 midterm election will actually live up to the billing.

In a midterm election, the president’s party typically loses seats in Congress. Trump and his GOP are openly employing authoritarian tactics to ensure that this does not happen, both through electoral machinations and via the establishment of a militarized domestic security infrastructure on a scale we have never experienced in U.S. history, with the exception of the Reconstruction era following the Civil War. 

On the state electoral front, Texas and soon Missouri will have reallocated their congressional delegations to favor Republicans. Gerrymandering is nothing new. What is unique is that these actions are occurring mid-decade and are transparently intended to deliver seats for the president, at his direction. 

At the federal level, Trump has stated that he plans to issue Executive Orders to implement voter identification requirements and to restrict mail-in voting, actions that he does not have the authority to take but which he will nonetheless attempt, with the goal of silencing the voices of millions of voters, primarily citizens of color and new Americans. 

Concurrent with these electoral moves, Trump and his enablers are planning to establish an expansive new state security apparatus, with a massively expanded Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) serving as their own paramilitary force and the use of the National Guard for purposes far beyond its traditional role.

ICE’s “Defend the Homeland” hiring campaign, utilizing thinly veiled appeals to white supremacy and the defense of “traditional” American values, is designed to appeal to recruits who have a desire to participate in the type of horrors we’ve seen unfold in Home Depot parking lots. If ICE’s recruiting blitz is successful, we will have in our midst a large and undertrained force whose loyalty will be to the current president and his ideology, rather than to the Constitution.

Trump has also directed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to create “specialist units” in the National Guard, dedicated to quelling potential civil unrest. We’ve already seen the president activate units of the California National Guard without the consent of the state’s governor. During the recent deployment in Los Angeles, Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem didn’t disguise the fact that the activation also targeted the city’s “socialist” political leadership, on top of the already dubious stated mission of assisting and protecting federal law enforcement. 

How could all of this play out in the months leading up to the 2026 election? Turning first to ICE, one of Trump’s favorite conspiracy theories is that undocumented immigrants play a significant role in influencing elections. Using voter fraud as a pretext on top of immigration enforcement, an aggressive ICE presence in urban areas and immigrant communities would have the desired effect of suppressing minority voters, benefiting Republicans. 

Assuming this highly plausible scenario unfolds, at the earliest hint of large-scale protests against ICE, or after a high-profile and possibly unrelated criminal incident, Trump would likely use National Guard units to “restore order,” creating a tinderbox where one thrown rock or backfiring car could easily result in chaos. This in turn would be used as justification for even more aggressive intervention, with an unstated goal of paralyzing or assuming de facto control over cities and parts of states that do not align with the president politically, and to call into question the validity of the election process in those areas.

If this sounds alarmist, we’ve already seen what Trump and his movement are capable of. We experienced the attempts to overturn a lawful election that culminated in the violent insurrection on Jan. 6, 2021. We also experienced the fallout from the 2020 murder of George Floyd when the President sought to invoke the Insurrection Act, which would have allowed him to establish control over state National Guard units. Trump’s authoritarian designs are not a secret.

The coming months will be one of the most dangerous periods in the history of our democracy. Trump and his enablers are clearly laying the groundwork to ensure that the next election is anything but free and fair, and it’s far from certain that our traditional institutions such as Congress, the courts and our federal system can save us.

It will come down to each of us taking action as individual citizens, whether through taking part in a protest, engaging with independent media, talking about (possibly divisive) issues with friends and family, or by joining community, civic and religious organizations that are committed to promoting a just and equitable system of government. If enough of us do this, we may be able to save our democracy before it’s too late. 

Ted Sherman, of St. Paul, is a global trade and supply chain professional. He studied history and German at the University of Notre Dame and business at the University of Chicago. He also served nine years in the Army Reserve.

The post Why the coming midterm elections loom as a threat to our democracy appeared first on MinnPost.