Troy Renck: Without Bo Nix, the Broncos are Chex Mix. A tasty treat for the New England Patriots to devour in the AFC championship. That is the prevailing belief of fans and oddsmakers, with Denver sliding from a 1-point favorite to a 5.5-point underdog at home. It is unprecedented, insulting, but not impossible for the Broncos. So, who must play better for Denver to pull off the upset: backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham or edge rusher Nik Bonitto?
Sean Keeler: It goes without saying that Bonitto has to be great. It also goes without saying that he can be great — the Broncos don’t beat Buffalo without him forcing Josh Allen into two fumbles. The problem? Those turnovers only turned into six Denver points, via two field goals. Which is where Steady Stiddy comes in. I don’t know if Stidham has “great” in his gear box. He just can’t be terrible, or shrink on the stage. Let the defense bring it home. What was Peyton Manning’s stat line in the 2015-16 AFC championship? Seventeen completions on 32 pass attempts for 176 yards through the air — and one massive 12-yard run. Zero interceptions. One fumble lost. The Broncos need that. They need almost exactly that.
Renck: This season is starting to feel like a movie I have seen before. Ten years ago. Patriots at Broncos. AFC championship. Questions about Denver’s quarterback — yes, there were doubts about Peyton Manning — and the nastiness of the Broncos’ defense. Time to run it back. The path for Stidham must be a short one, created by turnovers caused by a menacing pass rush. In the Nik of time, Bonitto is playing his best football. Even when he went into a sack drought during the final quarter of the season, his pressure metrics and pass-rush wins remained steady. Against the Bills, he brought back memories of the Orange Rush. Bonitto is capable of playing like Von Miller, circa 2015. A strip sack or a quarterback hit that leads to a pick-six is very realistic.
Keeler: You know what Stiddy’s got to be great at on Sunday? Getting out of the way. There’s a path with Jarrett. There is. It’s narrow. You’ve gotta squint to see it. But it’s there. Mostly, it’s about accepting your limitations without being handcuffed by them. Losing Nix means losing those legs that can create time and move the chains if Plan A/B/C blows up. Great QBs in this league are measured by their ability to make something out of nothing — think Caleb Williams’ ridiculous back-foot touchdown throw against the Rams late Sunday night, or Nix’s sidearm, falling TD toss at Washington. Those two tosses aren’t in Stiddy’s toolbox. Which means you have to be air-tight when it comes to the basics. No sloppy turnovers. No brain-cramps. In Frank Reich’s two postseason wins as Jim Kelly’s understudy, he threw for six touchdowns with just one pick. If Stiddy’s half that sharp, the Broncos have a chance.
Renck: There are nuances to my take. Most notably, Stidham must protect the ball, but not turtle. He can keep the sticks moving with RPOs — he is more mobile than people think — that will open up play action strikes to Marvin Mims Jr. or Courtland Sutton. This will be a close game, especially if J.K. Dobbins returns. Without Nix to go into a phone booth and find a cape in the fourth quarter, it will be on the defense to win it. The group was not great against the Bills, but five takeaways camouflaged the blemishes. Tom Brady played some of his worst games in Denver because of the noise and altitude. Denver must follow this blueprint by hitting Drake Maye early and often. Bonitto causing havoc, getting sacks, or even taking on double-teams that clear the way for Zach Allen is required for the Broncos to return to Santa Clara.
Keeler: If there’s anybody I’d want coaching with a backup QB in a “money” game, it’s Sean Payton. That’s where all that mad-scientist tinkering works to your advantage. Just ask Taysom Hill. Or Trevor Siemian. Or Teddy Bridgewater. If the defense does what it’s done all season, Stidham doesn’t have to worry about being a “game manager.” He just needs to manage to not screw this moment up.
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