A little more than a half-season into forward Ryan Donato’s four-year contract extension with the Blackhawks, his 2024-25 breakout increasingly is looking like a fluke.
Donato, 29, is on pace to finish with 31 points (17 goals and 14 assists), which would represent a 50% decline from his 62 points (31 goals and 31 assists) a season ago.
The good news is that Donato’s $4 million salary-cap hit isn’t a problem for the Hawks now and won’t be next season, either. In fact, it’s helping them reach the NHL’s salary floor.
His contract might become a minor annoyance during the two seasons after that, but the Hawks are in such a position — and the cap is rising at such an exponential rate — that it probably never will become an albatross. It’s not worth worrying about.
What is worth worrying about is Donato’s production because the Hawks really could use more from him. Their offense has dried up lately with only five goals during five-on-five play in their last five games, four of which have been losses.
Donato not only is mired in a seven-game point drought but also has only four goals and four assists in his last 34 games, dating to Nov. 7.
If he finishes with 31 points, that would be right in line with his production in 2021-22, 2022-23 and 2023-24 — seasons in which he was a true bottom-six guy and averaged 11 to 14 minutes per game. This season, he’s averaging a healthy 15:18 per game — about a minute less than he did last season.
Donato thinks he still is getting plenty of scoring chances, which reassures him goals eventually will come. The numbers, however, don’t agree.
His sky-high shooting percentage of 17% last season seemed likely to regress this season, and it has — down to 12.7%. That’s still above his career average of 11.2%, however.
The biggest issue is that he is generating fewer shots — and fewer of everything else, too. During five-on-five play, his 5.7 shots on goal and 6.7 scoring chances per 60 minutes are career lows and his 13.2 shot attempts per 60 minutes are tied for a career low.
Less time with star Connor Bedard is undoubtedly a factor, as coach Jeff Blashill noted Sunday. Bedard was Donato’s most frequent linemate last season, but they barely have spent time together this season.
Less time on the power play is another factor. Donato racked up 14 power-play points last season, compared with only two so far this season. But it also falls partially on Donato for not earning those opportunities under a new coaching staff.
One thing Blashill should avoid is putting Donato on the fourth line. His shifts with Colton Dach, for example, have been consistently disastrous. The Hawks have been outscored 9-2 with an awful 32.9% expected-goals ratio during their ice time together.
Take out that portion of Donato’s data, and things look considerably better overall. The Hawks have been outscored only 21-18 with a 50.5% expected-goals ratio during Donato’s ice time away from Dach.
That suggests keeping him with rookies Oliver Moore and Nick Lardis, whom he’s skating alongside now, or slotting him next to Jason Dickinson is probably the way to go. Donato is clearly a middle-six guy at this point, and he should be deployed as such.
More of a shoot-first mentality also might help. It might help the whole team.
‘‘You might have another play you could make on the back door, but sometimes the first option you get to take a shot is the best choice,’’ Donato said Sunday. ‘‘You might get a rebound, have it hit off a body or something off that. There’s a lot of ugly goals in this league, and I’ve seen it firsthand.’’
Still skating well
Donato’s transformation from poor skater to average skater by NHL standards greatly aided his breakout last season. Fans have wondered if a reversion in skating speed — back to its previous below-average levels — has contributed to Donato’s struggles this season.
The data doesn’t support that, though. Donato’s top recorded speed this season of 22.1 mph is higher than last season, and he’s also averaging more speed bursts above 20 mph per minute this season.
The Hawks’ jam-packed January schedule might be taking a slight toll physically — there were a few moments Saturday against the Bruins where it looked like Donato didn’t quite have enough speed to turn a loose puck into a transition attack — but that’s affecting everyone equally.
Donato said he keeps in touch with his Tampa-based skating coaches, Brett Strot and Natalia Zagorodnikova, to monitor how efficiently he’s moving on the ice.
“There’s times it could go a little bit [down], but you’ve got to dial it back in if you haven’t had many practices to work on certain things,” he said. “I chat with them every now and then down in Florida and figure things out. If I change or something looks off, they mention it to me. There’s times where it looks better than others, but that’s a matter of growing and finding new ways to tweak things.
“It would be different if they came to me and said, ‘The numbers are different and you’re slower.’ That would be a problem, and I would look at it.”
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