What are we supposed to make of Tim Walz not running for a third term?

In the early hours of Monday morning, the Tim Walz administration dropped a major announcement.

The nine child care centers featured in Nick Shirley’s viral video about fraud in Minnesota were, in fact, caring for children. 

“Children were present at all sites except one,” read a news release from the Department of Children, Youth and Families. “That site was not yet open for families for the day when inspectors arrived.”

The announcement added, “The department will not have anyone available for an interview.”

Also not available for an interview Monday was Walz. At 11 this morning at the State Capitol, Walz read verbatim the remarks he made public three hours earlier — he was dropping out of the governor’s race because of the mushrooming Medicaid fraud scandal. 

Looking out at a reception room packed to the gills with reporters standing and sitting cross-legged on the floor, Walz then said he wouldn’t take questions and walked away from the podium. 

Here is some context on why Walz reversed his earlier decision to try and become the first Minnesota governor ever elected to three terms.

Why did Walz say he dropped out?

Walz’s remarks featured a lengthy preamble about how Medicaid fraud is a serious problem, but one that President Donald Trump and other Republicans have cynically exploited for political gain before saying that he’s leaving the governor’s race. 

“As I reflected on this moment with my family and my team over the holidays, I came to the conclusion that I can’t (his emphasis) give a political campaign my all,” Walz stated. “Every minute I spend defending my own political interests would be a minute I can’t spend defending the people of Minnesota against the criminals who prey on our generosity and the cynics who prey on our differences.”

“Minnesota faces an enormous challenge this year,” Walz added. “And I refuse to spend even one minute of 2026 doing anything other than rising to meet the moment.”

The rest of his speech seemed copy and pasted from remarks to reporters in December.

Related: Tim Walz says Minnesota is auditing payments in Medicaid programs vulnerable to fraudsters. But the scope of the audit is quite limited. 

Walz again said that his administration is proactively looking to stop scam health care providers who take money from the state’s extraordinarily expansive Medicaid program. 

Specifics include pausing some provider reimbursements in 14 programs that the governor and U.S. Attorney’s Office have both marked as at high-risk for fraud. 

Walz also named a state “director of program integrity.” And the governor has profusely reminded the public that his administration cooperates with federal prosecutors who have filed criminal charges against housing assistance and autism care providers. 

In his remarks, Walz called phony health care providers “organized criminals” and beseeched that — in his remaining year in office — Republicans can work with him to “combat the criminals, rebuild the public’s trust, and make our state stronger.”

Is Walz dropping out a surprise?

Well, the governor himself said, “I know this news may come as a surprise.”

His speech also felt abrupt.

The only issue of policy substance the governor expounded on was Medicaid fraud.

Nothing was said about other problems facing Minnesota. Nor did the governor really do what seemingly every incumbent politician announcing the end of their candidacy would: trumpet their accomplishments.

Walz said nothing about shepherding the state through the pandemic, or the murder of George Floyd. And he just gave a sentence to new social programs his administration enacted, making mention of free school meals and a child tax credit. 

The speech, in other words, is evidence that Medicaid fraud, or at least the politics around it, have come to dominate the Walz administration.

What are Republicans saying?

Walz’s announcement erased yesterday’s news cycle where Trump reposted a video on Truth Social recklessly claiming Walz had a hand in the murder of slain DFL House leader Melissa Hortman.

The Minnesota Republicans who commented on the post did condemn Trump. Now state Republicans have something easier to discuss.

Gubernatorial candidate and Minnesota House Speaker Lisa Demuth, R-Cold Spring, said Monday that “if Democrats think they can sweep Minnesota’s fraud scandal away by swapping out Tim Walz, they are wrong.”

Related: Walz says his administration must strike a better balance between generosity and preventing fraud

“We need transformational change across state government,” Demuth said. “That only comes with a Republican governor.”

Minnesota’s last Republican governor was Tim Pawlenty 15 years ago.

Senate Minority Leader Mark Johnson, R-East Grand Forks, went even further, stating “The announcement this morning changes nothing for the 2026 campaign.”

What about the DFL?

Unlike Walz himself, Sen. Majority Leader Erin Murphy, DFL-St. Paul, and House DFL leader Zack Stephenson of Coon Rapids gave statements that did focus on the governor’s overall track record. 

Murphy, a Walz opponent in the 2018 gubernatorial primary, also seemed to compliment the governor’s self awareness.

“I appreciate that Governor Walz recognizes the political moment we’re facing,” Murphy said. “The threats posed by the Trump administration were already dire, and now that he has weaponized his entire government against our state, they are existential.”

What comes next?

Amy Klobuchar, who has served as a U.S. Senator for Minnesota since 2007, is widely reported to be considering a bid for governor. Like Walz himself, Klobuchar may be a big enough name to box out other DFLers from running. 

Walz said that he will be back tomorrow to answer reporter questions. 

Editor’s note: This story was updated on Jan. 5, 2026, to remove an incorrect reference to Medicaid. Most daycare centers featured in last week’s viral video get money from the federal Child Care Assistance Program.

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