The voter turnout for Proposition 50 could be one of the highest in recent California history, especially for an odd-numbered election year that traditionally sees fewer voters casting their ballots. And it could be all thanks to one person: Donald J. Trump.
While statewide elections in California are almost always held on even-numbered years, for example presidential, gubernatorial and congressional races, odd-numbered years are typically for local municipal elections, such as a mayoral race, or special elections.
And those odd-numbered elections have historically shown weak voter turnouts as we saw in the 2013 Los Angeles mayoral election when only about 23% of the registered voters showed up to the polls to deliver victory to Eric Garcetti.
But the 2025 California election, which had only Prop 50 on the ballot, became more of a referendum against President Trump and his policies that affect Californians, according to political analyst and USC and Pepperdine University professor Dan Schnur.
“In a deep blue state like California, not only were the voices overwhelmingly against Trump and for Prop 50, but it provoked an extraordinarily large turnout,” Schnur said.
With all precincts partially reporting as of Wednesday afternoon, more than 8 million ballots were tallied, according to the Secretary of the State office. Among them, over 63% voted to approve Prop 50 while 36% rejected it.
When all ballots are counted, we could see a repeat of the 2021 Special Election, an odd-numbered year in which over 12 million voters turned out to approve or reject the recall effort against Governor Newsom.
“Most of the people you talk to who are voting on this measure are voting because of one person: Donald Trump. That’s what this is all about,” NBC Los Angeles’ Chief Political Correspondent Conan Noland said.
NBC News’ exit poll also showed a large majority of Californians were “angry” about Trump’s actions on immigration, including sending National Guard members to Los Angeles. Among the voters who cast their ballots on Prop 50, 64% said Trump’s actions went too far while 24% said he’s done about right. About 12% said the Trump administration has not gone far enough.
A large majority of voters also opposed the federal government’s decision to send the National Guard into major cities in California, including Los Angeles. As 64% of voters opposed the activation of National Guard troops for immigration purposes, 35% supported it.
Dr. Fernando Guerra, political analyst and Loyola Marymount University professor, also said Democrats’ efforts to tie Prop 50, a ballot measure of congressional redistricting, to the president paid off. And what happened in California could signal what’s to come in Texas, a GOP stronghold that’s redrawn congressional districts to squeeze out Democratic congressmembers.
“California is more Democratic than Texas is Republican,” said Guerra, referring to Texas’ congressional border districts with heavy Hispanic populations. “If you have a wave election, if you have a turnout, some of those districts that Texas drew to become Republican are going to stay Democratic.”
And the Democrats’ anger toward Trump also attracted a lot of money, which made it almost impossible for Californians to miss “Yes on 50” commercials for nearly 90 days, and turned it into one of the most ballot campaigns in California history.
“Given the stakes involved in terms of control of Congress for next year, Newsom raised an immense amount of money,” Schnur said, explaining Democrats’ aggressive fundraising for Prop 50 caused Republicans to pivot.
“Our best guess is that (national Republicans) decided that rather than spending $100 million in all-or-nothing moonshot in a deep blue state like California, better to save their money for congressional races next year.”
Shawn Steel, a member of the National Republican Committee, admitted while speaking to NBCLA Tuesday night, that it was impossible to compete with the astronomically large amount of resources being poured into the yes campaign.
“You see that money just doesn’t talk. It wears,” Steele said. “When you get $130 million from the likes of George Soros and some other interesting billionaires, it becomes so overwhelming. There are so many other things going on in the country that it was very difficult to raise money.”
The GOP has now filed a federal lawsuit against California, alleging Prop 50 is a violation under the 14th Amendment, equal protections under the law, and 15th amendment, which prohibits states from denying the right to vote based on race.
While the 2026 midterm elections are a year away, the results from Tuesday’s elections, not just in California but across the country, may provide a glimpse into voters’ preferences.
“California, I think particularly with these district lines, is going to continue to be overwhelmingly Democratic. We could very likely end up with four Republicans in Congress in a delegation of 52,” Schnur said, highlighting more clues into the 2026 elections come from other states like Virginia and New Jersey, which elected Democratic female governors.
“If you look at states like Virginia, in particular, which tend to be early signs of what we see in the following year’s midterms, the fact that Democratic candidate for governor there, Abigail Spanberger, and her down ticket running mates, won as well, by such large margins, does indicate that Democrats at least begin the midterm election year with some wind at their back.”
This story uses functionality that may not work in our app. Click here to open the story in your web browser.
Want more insights? Join Working Title - our career elevating newsletter and get the future of work delivered weekly.
