Patriots film review: Rookies involved in critical plays leading to win

The Patriots played an imperfect game in a statement win over a very good Buccaneers team Sunday, and that should not necessarily be viewed as a negative.

Quarterback Drake Maye made one of the biggest mistakes of his season, the Patriots couldn’t run the ball for most of the game, there were tackling issues and coverage breakdowns, and the Patriots still beat a division leader on the road. That just means Mike Vrabel’s Patriots might be able to beat anyone in the league when they play their best.

There were more positives to take away from Sunday’s 28-23 win over the Bucs at Raymond James Stadium than negatives. The biggest: All of the signature performances from Patriots rookies.

The Patriots dressed 11 of their 13 rookies on Sunday, and the majority of them made critical plays that helped the team win.

Running back TreVeyon Henderson ripped off three big runs, wide receiver Kyle Williams hauled in the longest touchdown pass of Drake Maye’s career, left tackle Will Campbell and left guard Jared Wilson sealed off the blind side on Williams’ explosive play, outside linebacker Elijah Ponder beat one of the league’s best left tackles for his first career sack, safety Craig Woodson broke up a key pass late in the game to help seal the victory and kicker Andy Borregales was a perfect 4-of-4 on extra points in a game when every point mattered.

Most teams with 13 rookies on the roster, 11 of whom dress, aren’t atop their conference standings after 10 weeks. The Patriots are 8-2 and riding a seven-game winning streak, and they continue to get the best out of their 2025 NFL Draft class.

Henderson suddenly emerged as one of the team’s most explosive players. Williams finally showed off his speed and play-making ability. Campbell has a short memory and is stacking standout performances. Wilson continues to progress next to Campbell. Ponder is being counted on more after the Patriots traded Keion White. Woodson has been a dependable presence in the Patriots’ backfield all season and has a knack for big plays. And Efton Chism, Marcus Bryant, Joshua Farmer, Julian Ashby and Borregales all play roles, as well.

Here’s what else the film revealed about the Patriots’ win over the Buccaneers:

Drake Maye

16-of-31 for 270 yards, 2 TDs, INT, 13 rushing yards

Accurate throw percentage: 60.7%

Under pressure: 4-of-11 for 167 yards, TD, INT, 1 sack, 10 rushing yards

Against the blitz: 6-of-10 for 129 yards, 2 TDs 0 sacks

Behind the line: 3-of-3 for 20 yards

0-9 yards downfield: 8-of-12 for 78 yards, TD

10-19 yards downfield: 4-of-8 for 118 yards, TD, INT

20+ yards downfield: 1-of-5 for 54 yards

Notes: Maye is currently the betting favorite for NFL MVP after stringing together seven straight wins. It’s also fair to point out that he hasn’t played his best football over the last two weeks, while also accepting that this was inevitable. If Maye continued to play as well as he did from Week 4 to Week 7, then he’d surpass everyone as the greatest quarterback of all time. That’s how efficient and explosive he was performing in that span. At some point, Maye was going to come back down to earth. His efficiency, especially on deep passes, was unsustainable.

The Patriots’ young quarterback struggled with his accuracy early in Sunday’s win when a brief rainstorm passed over Raymond James Stadium. It’s something to watch in the future, because the elements will play a factor at some point in Foxboro this season, and if Maye’s accuracy dips in the rain, throwing in the cold or snow probably won’t help matters. Two of three consecutive incompletions on targets to Mack Hollins were skied above the wide receiver.

Overall, Maye finished the game with a -0.2 EPA. His average depth of target was 11.8 yards as offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels depended heavily on the deep ball, though Maye struggled on 20-plus-yard passes, going 1-of-5. His completion percentage over expected was 1.4%, his second-lowest mark of the season.

But Maye still showed enough flashes to make you believe that his struggles were more an aberration than anything too worrying. His ability to stand strong in the pocket and deliver a perfect throw with pressure bearing down is something that cannot be taught. Maye took a hit while hitting Williams on a crossing route late in the first quarter. Williams sped by the Buccaneers’ secondary for a 72-yard touchdown. Maye threw over the middle with pressure in his face to wide receiver DeMario Douglas in stride late in the second quarter. Douglas picked up a 26-yard gain on the play. Later near the end of the third quarter, Maye navigated the pocket while evading pressure on a 15-yard completion to Hollins. Maye’s second-longest play of the day, a 54-yard bomb to Hollins down the right sideline, also came with pressure.

Maye also threw his interception with a defender in his face, but that came after he escaped the pocket and started rolling to his right. He tried to fit the ball into a tight window to Hollins in the back right of the end zone on third-and-goal. Safety Tykee Smith came off of tight end Hunter Henry to make an impressive diving interception.

It was a bad decision. The Patriots were leading 21-16 with 5:25 left in the game. A field goal would have put the Patriots ahead by 8 points. With the score and the time remaining, a worst-case scenario would have sent the game to overtime. Maye then had to rely on his defense to make a stop after the change of possession.

Critical areas

Turnovers: Patriots 1, Buccaneers 0

Explosive play rate: Patriots 10.2%, Buccaneers 7.6%

Success rate: Patriots 38%, Buccaneers 49%

Red-zone efficiency: Patriots 1-2, Buccaneers 2-3

Defensive pressure rate: Patriots 31.1%, Buccaneers 44.4%

Offense

Game plan

Personnel breakdown: 50.8% of snaps in 11 personnel, 16.9% snaps in 12 personnel, 8.5% snaps in 21F personnel, 6.8% snaps in 22 personnel.***

Personnel production: 46.7% success rate in 11 personnel, 15.4% success rate in 12 personnel, 40% success rate in 21F personnel, 27.3% success rate in 22 personnel.

First-down down play-calls: 54.2% run (15.4% success rate), 45.8% pass (45.5% success rate)

Play-action rate: 25%

Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels dialed up a heavy dose of 11 personnel, and that’s where the Patriots found their most consistent success. With Kayshon Boutte out with a hamstring injury, Hollins played a bigger role with Williams taking on third wide receiver snaps behind Hollins and Stefon Diggs. Douglas still only played 13 snaps, while Efton Chism was on the field for two snaps.

The Patriots used play action on a quarter of their passing snaps, which is slightly below their season average. Maye was 5-of-7 for 118 yards with a touchdown, sack and scramble using play-action. The Patriots used play-action on Williams’ 72-yard touchdown pass. They sold it well on a two-man route with fullback Jack Westover on the field picking up a defender by mimicking a lead block. Henderson and tight end Austin Hooper also stayed in to block.

This might sound silly in a game that Henderson had carries of 69, 55 and 16 yards, but the Patriots did struggle to consistently run the ball. If you take away those three carries, running backs only picked up 13 yards on 16 carries for less than a yard per carry. The Patriots will take that if it also means three explosive runs. But it also explains why the Patriots did have trouble moving the ball at times in the game. Maye was not as precise as usual, but Patriots running backs were also having trouble finding room to run. The Patriots averaged 6.7 yards after contact per carry and 6.1 total yards per attempt. That means the Patriots’ running backs were regularly getting hit behind the line of scrimmage. The offensive line as a whole struggled to push the Buccaneers’ defensive line upfield.

Player stats

Broken tackles: RB TreVeyon Henderson 2

Pressure allowed: Maye 6 (1 sack), C Garrett Bradbury 6 (6 hurries), LT Will Campbell 4 (QB hit, 3 hurries), LG Jared Wilson 1 (QB hit), RG Mike Onwenu 1 (hurry), TE Austin Hooper 1 (hurry), RT Morgan Moses 1 (hurry)

Run-stuffs allowed: Onwenu 3, Campbell 3, Wilson 3, Bradbury 3, Morgan Moses 3

Drops: none

Notes

• Henry and Diggs deserve credit for helping to pop Henderson on his first explosive play, a 16-yard run. Henry sealed off the edge, while Diggs occupied a cornerback. Moses got out in front of Henderson to clear the way. Williams also popped a linebacker to  spring Henderson.
• The 55-yard TD was a well-blocked run. Henderson ran between Moses and Henry as Hollins occupied Smith. Henderson was decisive and hit the hole hard, letting his speed take him the rest of the way. He was clocked over 22 MPH on the run.
• Henderson was running hard on his 69-yard touchdown, as well. He broke a tackle and knocked over Wilson while hitting the edge. That chain of events knocked five Buccaneers defenders and three Patriots blockers onto the ground. Henderson ran to the edge and sped past the Buccaneers’ defense to the end zone.
• Williams used his speed to gain separation from Bucs cornerback Benjamin Morrison on his 72-yard touchdown catch. Give credit to the rookie for not turtling and getting on the ground after the catch, as well, as some young players might do when finally catching a pass after some early-season struggles. Williams immediately turned upfield to race past the Buccaneers’ defense for the score, clocking in at over 21 MPH. Campbell and Wilson both won their 1-on-1 blocks on the play, giving Maye enough time to find Williams on the crosser.
• Hollins led the team with six catches for 106 yards. He picked up separation from cornerback Zyon McCollum by quickly faking inside before continuing down the sideline. It was just enough space for him to make the over-the-shoulder catch before getting dragged down from behind.
• Diggs didn’t have the most productive performance, but he served as a safety valve for Maye. His toe-tapping touchdown in the back of the end zone was a thing of beauty.
• Maye’s lone sack was on him. He couldn’t find an open receiver and tucked the ball to scramble up the middle, where he was tackled for a 1-yard loss.
• Bradbury had the unenviable task of blocking Buccaneers nose tackle Vita Vea, who has a truly unique skillset of power, agility and instincts.

Defense

Game plan

Personnel breakdown: 60.6% three-corner nickel package, 18.2% base defense, 21.2% dime.****

Coverage breakdown: 74.4% zone, 25.6% man

Blitz rate: 28.9%

Blitz efficacy: 38.5% offensive success rate, 4 yards per play and no TDs allowed

The Patriots went heavy to start the game by inserting Jahlani Tavai at outside linebacker in place of K’Lavon Chaisson. They utilized the 3-4-4/5-2-4 alignment just twice despite opening the game with it. They also played in a traditional base defense on 10 snaps.

Otherwise, the Patriots stayed in a nickel defense for the majority of their defensive snaps.

Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez shadowed Buccaneers wide receiver Emeka Egbuka in most critical situations and third downs. He allowed two catches on eight targets for 35 yards to Egbuka.

The Patriots primarily deployed man coverage on third downs. They used zone coverage on over 80% of first and second downs. The Patriots mixed Cover-3, quarters and Cover-2.

Player stats

Pressure: OLB K’Lavon Chaisson 6 (sack, QB hit, 4 hurries), DL Milton Williams 3 (QB hit, 2 hurries), DL Cory Durden 3 (three hurries), OLB Harold Landry 3 (QB hit, two hurries), OLB Elijah Ponder 2 (sack, hurry), S Craig Woodson 1 (QB hit), LB Jack Gibbens 1 (hurry), DT Khyiris Tonga 1 (hurry)

Run-stuffs: CB Christian Gonzalez, DT Christian Barmore, LB Jahlani Tavai, LB Robert Spillane, OLB Anfernee Jennings, Durden, Williams, Landry

Pass deflections: Woodson 2, Gonzalez, Gibbens, Spillane

Missed tackles: Chaisson 2, CB Marcus Jones 2, Gibbens, Williams, Hawkins

Notes

• Gonzalez fell down on one of Egbuka’s completions. He also was flagged for defensive pass interference. He showed up in key situations, however, and continues to have a strong season.
• Carlton Davis allowed a 10-yard touchdown to Tez Johnson. Davis had Johnson blanketed until Bucs QB Baker Mayfield rolled out of the pocket, at which point Johnson broke free to the right side of the end zone for the catch.
• There was a coverage breakdown on the Buccaneers’ first touchdown, a 21-yarder to Egbuka. The Patriots were in quarters coverage. Gonzalez carried Sterling Shepard down the field, while Marcus Jones continued to cover a shallow zone. That led Egbuka to leak into space, leaving him wide open for the touchdown.
• Chaisson continues to have a career year in Vrabel’s system and could see a significant raise next year when he hits free agency. His sack was of the pursuit variety, chasing down Mayfield, but he was providing consistent pressure.
• Ponder impressively beat Buccaneers left tackle Tristan Wirfs off the snap on the rookie’s first career sack. Mayfield slipped out of Ponder’s grasp, but the Patriots edge defender didn’t give up on the play, diving to bring the QB down from behind. It was a solid game for Ponder, who has impressed Patriots coaches since the summer.
• Durden might be the Patriots’ most unheralded player. He began the season on the practice squad but was quickly signed to the 53-man roster. He played a season-high 30 defensive snaps and provided pressure on multiple instances, including Ponder’s sack. He also sniffed out a screen, and while he didn’t record the tackle, his play caused Robert Spillane to make a 1-yard tackle for loss. He was involved in another 2-yard loss as a run defender, as well.
• Woodson combined with Gonzalez for a pass breakup on third-and-3 coming out of the two-minute warning in the fourth quarter by delivering a hard hit to tight end Cade Otton while the ball was arriving. He broke up another pass midway through the second quarter on a target to Otton, knocking the ball away while it was in the tight end’s grasp. The rookie safety also gave up a last-minute touchdown to Johnson, but it was while the game was already in hand after Henderson’s 69-yard game-clinching TD.
• The Patriots’ run defense wasn’t as stout as usual, allowing 5.4 yards per carry and 4.8 yards per carry to running backs. It was the first time all season they allowed a running back to go for 50 yard or more, with Sean Tucker breaking the season-long streak. Patriots interior defenders were getting pushed back more than usual, but the Patriots also had issues with tackling, especially in the backfield. Buccaneers running backs were able to escape negative plays with too much regularity.
• Gibbens filled in well for injured linebacker Christian Elliss, with the pass breakup, pressure and multiple defensive stops. He and Spillane both had near-interceptions.
• The Patriots rushed five on fourth-and-3 with 1:55 left in the game, and Chaisson, Williams, Woodson and Durden all got home. Refs should have blown the whistle with Mayfield in the grasp, but he somehow stayed on his feet and flipped the ball to running back Rachaad White. Credit to Hawkins for having the awareness to tackle White, since the play was not over. Jones and Landry were also in the area.

*Explosive plays are defined as runs of 12-plus yards and passes of 20-plus yards.

**Success rate is an efficiency metric measuring how often an offense stays on schedule. A play is successful when it produces positive EPA (Expected Points Added).

***11 personnel = one running back, one tight end; 12 personnel = one running back, two tight ends; 13 personnel = one back, three tight ends; 21 personnel = two backs, one tight end; 22 personnel = two backs, two tight ends.

****Base defense = four defensive backs; nickel = five; dime = six.