Time to Buc-le up.
The Patriots have taken their six-game win streak south, where they will be underdogs for the first time in more than a month at Tampa Bay. Coming off their bye week, the Buccaneers are well-rested and tracking for another playoff berth at 6-2. While Baker Mayfield has cooled since his early-season MVP campaign, Bucs rookie Emeka Egbuka is among the most explosive receivers in football, and Tampa Bay’s defense ranks among the NFL’s best.
Can Drake Maye keep his own MVP hopes alive on the road against the blitz-happy Bucs? And what must Mike Vrabel’s defense do to slow down Mayfield?
Here’s what to watch for Sunday:
When the Patriots run
It’s on you, kid.
Rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson is slated to make his second straight start, with Rhamondre Stevenson still sidelined by a toe injury. Last weekend, Henderson rushed for 55 yards and caught four passes for 32 yards as the Patriots’ lead back, while Terrell Jennings served as his backup. Henderson broke five tackles and ripped off his best runs on the outside, where he’s been most effective all season.
However, Henderson should expect tough sledding Sunday. The Buccaneers field a top-5 run defense by virtually every metric. Opponents have had almost no luck picking up small, steady gains or explosive plays, thanks mostly to 340-pound Pro Bowl defensive tackle Vita Vea and one-time All-Pro linebacker Lavonte David.
Expect the Patriots to try and avoid Vea on the ground, and possibly go no-huddle to tire him out as they did in their last matchup four years ago.
When the Patriots pass
Maye has been money against the blitz all season. But Tampa’s blitz is a different beast.
Fifteen Buccaneers have recorded at least a half-sack in just eight games, executing coach Todd Bowles’ exotic pressure packages that send extra rushers on roughly 33% of opponents’ passing plays. Expect Bowles to isolate Vea against left guard Jared Wilson to create a mismatch, and attack Henderson in blitz pickup after the rookie allowed three pressures last weekend. This week, offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels came to Henderson’s defense, but also said preparing for this defense means expecting the unexpected based on his previous battles with Bowles when Bowles coached the Jets.
“There’s a challenge to the way you enter the game, and then all of a sudden, the game takes on a different reality,” McDaniels said. “I mean, there’s been games where (Bowles) blitzed us endlessly, and then there’s been other games where it’s been a little bit more tempered, but there’s always a reason for it, which, like I said, I’ve been so impressed with.”
Assuming Maye has time, DeMario Douglas and Stefon Diggs could be primed for big games against a pass defense that ranks bottom-10 at defending the middle of the field by DVOA. Douglas should at least see more snaps with Kayshon Boutte sidelined by a hamstring injury. That also goes for speedy rookie Kyle Williams, who has just two catches in nine games this season.
But don’t expect many deep shots to the left, where veteran Bucs corner Jamel Dean often locks down his side of the field. Opposite Dean, corner Zyon McCollum will make for an easier target.
When the Buccaneers run
Can they keep the streak alive?
Through nine games, the Pats have yet to allow any player to rush for 50 yards, an NFL record dating back to 1950. This week, the Patriots caught a break with top Tampa running back Bucky Irving ruled out over shoulder and toe injuries. That leaves Rachaad White to pick up the slack.
White has rushed for 287 yards and four touchdowns at a 3.7 yards-per-carry clip this season. He and Irving have been held back at times by a poor run-blocking offensive line that’s also dealing with injuries at multiple positions. Unlike past weeks, when they bulked up with heavier personnel to stop opponents’ run games, look for the Patriots to try and limit White with lighter packages that can also protect them against the deep pass.
And in critical situations, keep an eye on the Bucs running behind stud left tackle Tristan Wirfs, who is far and away their best offensive lineman.
When the Buccaneers pass
Christian Gonzalez, meet Emeka Egbuka.
The stud rookie receiver leads Tampa Bay in all major receiving categories with 34 catches for 562 yards and five touchdowns. He’s proven to be an excellent insurance policy against recent injuries to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, who are both out Sunday. Egbuka has done most of his damage out wide this season, but also aligns in the slot. Wherever he is, Gonzalez should shadow him.
Outside of Egbuka, the Bucs are low on threatening pass-catchers. Tight end Cade Otton is a solid player who could be a red-zone target. Mayfield also might opt to throw to White, especially since the Patriots have struggled at times to contain running backs in the passing game and Mayfield may want immediate outlets against the blitz.
If the Pats blitz Mayfield — who has struggled against extra rushers this season — that will leave them vulnerable deep if Egbuka breaks free. Ideally, defensive tackles Christian Barmore and Milton Williams can create havoc against a soft interior offensive line, though Barmore is coming off a game where he finished with zero pressures.
Game pick
Buccaneers 27, Patriots 24
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