NFL Week 10: Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

The phrase “must win” gets thrown around a lot during the various sports seasons. Oftentimes, games deemed “must wins” are not literally that. Typically, there is still a small percentage opening for ultimate success even after a loss in a “must win.”

Such is the case this Sunday at NRG Stadium, where the 3-5 Houston Texans face the 5-3 Jacksonville Jaguars. If the Texans lose this game, they’ll be 3-6, and technically still alive for the postseason. However, losing this game means falling three games back of Jacksonville, with an 0-2 head to head record. This doesn’t even take into account the Colts are 7-2 right now.

So, yeah, by the definition we’ve adopted in the world of sports, this game on Sunday for the Texans is 100 percent a “must win.” Here are four things to watch for:

4. Kicking game 

It was a big week for both kickers in this game last week, as Texans kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn’kicked five field goals against the Broncos, providing all of the Texans’ scoring, and Jags kicker Cam Little broke the NFL record, bottling a 68 yard field goal against the Raiders. Fairbairn is dealing with some sort of injury this week, as the Texans brought in journeyman kicker Matthew Wright on the practice squad. In a game where Davis Mills is likely to start for the Texans, and the Texans defense is likely to smother Trevor Lawrence, kicking game will be a huge key, both placekicking for points, and in the return game. 

3. Contain Etienne

Aside from Week 2 versus Tampa Bay, the Texans have done a nice job of containing opposing rushers this season. J.K. Dobbins was held in check last week. This week, it’ll be Travis Etienne on the opposing side, who is not only the ninth leading rusher in the NFL, but a threat in the passing game, as well. The one thing that can take some pressure off Lawrence is a competent run game. 

2. Keep Lawrence in the pocket

That said, the biggest key to victory for the Texans will be putting this game on Lawrence, making him the necessary catalyst for the Jaguars. I know the Jags are 5-3, and Lawrence has had some big moments late in games. Bell to bell, though, he is still a mediocre NFL quarterback. If his first read isn’t there he panics, which is why the Texans can’t let him escape the pocket and use his legs. If he has to stay in the pocket, the sacks and turnovers will come.  

1. Clean game from Mills 

When the Texans lost to the Jaguars in Week 3, it was ultimately a turnover festival by the Texans’ offense, three in the fourth quarter, that ultimately did the Texans in. That was a C.J. Stroud game. This will be Davis Mills, which makes the turnover siren scream even louder. In Week 3, rookie Aireontae Ersery’s matchup at left tackle with Jags’ edge rusher Josh Hines-Allen was ultimately a huge difference maker in the game, as Hines-Allen forced the final Texans turnover. Ersery has improved since then, but now they handle Hines-Allen is a big factor in this game.

SPREAD: Texans -1.5

PREDICTION: Texans 20, Jaguars 16

SEASON RECORD: 4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS

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