Houston Texans Path to the Postseason

After an 0-3 start to the 2025 season, the Houston Texans have worked their way back to .500. It’s been a long road, with several jagged turns, stuffed attempts at the goal line, and a concussion to their starting quarterback. Here they are, though, with seven games left, and a puncher’s chance still at making the post season.

For a point of reference, here are the current standings in the AFC. Keep in mind, seven teams make the playoffs — four division winners and three wild card teams:

1. Denver Broncos, 9-2 (AFC West)
2. New England Patriots, 9-2 (AFC East)
3. Indianapolis Colts, 8-2 (AFC South)
4. Pittsburgh Steelers, 6-4 (AFC North)
5. Buffalo Bills, 7-3 (Wild Card)
6. LA Chargers, 7-4 (Wild Card)
7. Jacksonville Jaguars, 6-4 (Wild Card)

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8. Houston Texans, 5-5

9. Kansas City Chiefs, 5-5

10. Baltimore Ravens, 5-5

11. Miami Dolphins, 4-7

12. Cincinnati Bengals, 3-7

13. Las Vegas Raiders, 2-7

14. New York Jets, 2-8

15. Cleveland Browns, 2-8

16. Tennessee Titans, 1-9

If we are being realistic, the wild card is probably going to be the route for the Texans, which would mean they would hit the road in the opening round of the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. It’s probably too early to scour the schedules of the teams the Texans are competing with, but laying out the Texans remaining schedule is essential.

So here are the seven remaining opponents, after which we will power rank these games by degree of difficulty:

Week 12: vs Buffalo (TNF)

Week 13: at Indianapolis

Week 14: at Kansas City (SNF)

Week 15: vs Arizona

Week 16: vs Las Vegas

Week 17: at LA Chargers

Week 18: vs Indianapolis

The good news is that a majority of the Texans’ remaining schedule is against teams their challenging for a playoff spot. The bad news is that most of those teams are very good football teams, and the Texans have not fared well against good football teams this season. The combined record of the five teams to whom the Texans have lost is 36-15.

So let’s rank these in order of difficulty:

7. Arizona Cardinals at home

6. Las Vegas Raiders at home

These are just two bad football teams, and a loss to either of them likely ends the season, assuming the Texans are still in the hunt when they get to Week 15. The Cardinals look like they’ve quit on Jonathan Gannon, and Geno Smith is just a disaster at quarterback for the Raiders. 

5. Los Angeles Chargers on the road 

The Chargers are tough team to figure out. They’re an inconsistent 7-4 team, capable of losing to anybody (like the Giants, for example). Their offensive line is in shambles. Texans castoff Austin Deculus is their starting left tackle. Their home field advantage is negligble, and the Texans have a recent example of success against them, their 32-12 win in the playoffs last year. 

4. Buffalo Bills at home 

This is Thursday’s game. Sure, the Bills are 7-3 this season, but they started the season beating up on patsies. Through the first six weeks, the four teams the Bills had beaten had a combined record of 3-21. Since then, they’ve shown they are capable of losing by 17 to the Dolphins (Week 10) or hanging 44 points on Tampa Bay (Week 11). The Bills’ run defense stinks, but will the Texans be able to take advantage?

3. Indianapolis Colts at home

2. Indianapolis Colts on the road 

The home game versus the Colts is the final game of the season and comes with a complete win card element to it — there is a chance that the Colts could be so far out in front in the division or conference that they don’t need to win the game for any reason whatsoever. That possibility exists. If that’s the case, I’d probably bump it down to fourth on this list. The bottom line is that the Texans will likely need to win one of these games versus Indy to make the postseason. 

1. Kansas City Chiefs on the road, at night, in the cold

Ironically, it’s a game against a team with the same record as the Texans, and a team that is currently one seed BEHIND them that scares me the most. Look, we know the Chiefs are more talented and better coached than your garden variety 5-5 team. They’ve had the Texans’ number over the last year, including last season’s playoffs. This game will be in the cold, at night, and if you’re an officiating conspiracist, going against a Chiefs team fighting for a playoff spot feels like you’re walking to a guillotine of phantom roughing calls on Patrick Mahomes.

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