HBO’s Crown Jewel Status Shapes the Battle for Warner Bros. Discovery

There’s a particularly trenchant quote from HBO’s House of the Dragon that keeps popping into my head as major media companies jockey for position in pursuit of Warner Bros. Discovery: “Aegon Targaryen sits the Iron Throne. He wears the Conqueror’s crown, wields the Conqueror’s sword, has the Conqueror’s name. He was anointed by a septon of the Faith before the eyes of thousands. Every symbol of legitimacy belongs to him.” 

Symbols are assets that can be leveraged for value in different ways. Zooming out to House of the Dragon’s home network, HBO finds itself in a position to be an integral symbol of legitimacy and value in the WBD sweepstakes. As all publicly circle the wagons, it’s time to explore the premium cable network’s merits and which company would benefit most from its addition.

This article contains a plethora of data points that highlight whitespace opportunities and strategic value in the market. But it’s not always the quantifiable elements that yield the greatest benefits. HBO’s multi-decade track record as a culture-shaping authority cannot be summed up in an Excel sheet.  

“It is not merely a content library; rather, it is a brand that stands for prestige and audience trust, meaning an acquirer instantly uplevels its brand value with the acquisition, as well as attracts unrivaled talent,” Andrew Cussens, CEO of content studio Film Folk, told Observer.

This very notion was recently demonstrated when WBD re-rebranded its streaming service to HBO Max. The name carries weight throughout the industry while certain rival brands still search for a defined identity that elicits strong audience associations. The data backs up its position as a go-to destination and an illuminating opportunity.

HBO and HBO Max by the numbers

WBD’s streaming platforms had 128 million subscribers at the end of September, with the vast majority belonging to HBO Max. (Netflix has more than 300 million subscribers.) It’s a hits-driven platform that values prestige quality over quantity. That’s incredibly valuable, but it can run counter to mass market ambitions. 

For example, The Last of Us Season 2 and The White Lotus Season 3 rank among the most-watched U.S. streaming series of 2025, according to Samba TV’s State of Streaming report. Yet, HBO Max only accounts for 7 percent of the Top 100 most-streamed series overall, per Samba, while WBD’s share of U.S. streaming sits at just 1.3 percent, per Nielsen, respectively. Even as the majority of viewing for HBO series occurs on streaming vs linear, HBO Max remains a top-heavy platform that accounts for a surprisingly small slice of the U.S. TV pie despite its namesake brand’s prestige.

From Watchmen and Penguin to House of the Dragon and It: Welcome to Derry, HBO has worked wonders in elevating brand-name intellectual property and franchise fare in pursuit of greater viewership (while still succeeding with more standard “prestige” fare like The White Lotus and Task). This raises the question: has it reached its scalable ceiling? 

“There is definite upside in the number of subscribers and revenue-per-viewer, and HBO Max hasn’t saturated either,” Samba TV CEO and co-founder Ashwin Navin told Observer. “By adding new tier-one shows and tentpoles, they can continue to broaden their audience base. With more subscribers on the ad-tier, combined with more precision targeting and data, there’s definitely room to grow monetization. The ceiling is much higher with the right investment and growth strategy.”

HBO is already doing most of the heavy lifting for HBO Max, especially when compared to its high-minded cable counterparts. HBO titles account for 14 percent of the streamer’s library, but more than 18 percent of its audience demand, according to Parrot Analytics. That tops Showtime on Paramount+ (7.2 percent supply vs. 7.3 percent demand) and FX on Hulu (3.6 percent vs. 4.6 percent). 

Who stands to gain the most if WBD is sold?

For better and for worse (mostly the latter), Hollywood is chasing scale to compete. Yet, no one is talking about the potential overlap when it comes to possible streaming combos. Paramount Skydance, Comcast and Netflix could all stand to gain from HBO’s prestige pricing power, but face challenges to continue scaling without sacrificing quality. 

Roughly two-thirds of U.S. adults who subscribe to HBO Max also subscribe to Netflix, according to Greenlight Analytics, where I work as Director of Insights & Content Strategy. About 40 percent of HBO Max subscribers also use Paramount+, while only 20 percent overlap with Peacock.

“Either Paramount or Comcast would benefit the most,” Hernan Lopez, founder and CEO of media/tech management consulting firm Owl & Co., told Observer. “They would immediately more than double their global revenue and profits from streaming, and the size of the library — both for their own streaming services as well as strategic leverage for negotiation with Netflix.”

The end result for each suitor would be different. Generally speaking, we’re talking about more subscribers, greater pricing power, higher combined lifetime value per customer, higher engagement, lower churn and so on. On paper, that’s awfully tantalizing, though not without its obstacles. 

“Netflix would only fully realize the value of buying WB streaming and studios if it keeps the TV and theatrical studios open, which would mean being willing to make and sell shows to third parties and distribute in theaters—things they haven’t done so far,” Lopez noted. Despite nudges in the theatrical direction, Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos said as recently as April that movie theaters are an “outmoded idea.” Oof. 

Interestingly, 78 percent of 2025 HBO Max engagement was directed at titles released before 2025, the second-highest rate among the premium streamers, per Samba. That speaks to the enduring power of HBO’s treasured library and the appointment-viewing gaps between high-profile HBO releases. On the flip side, Peacock (64%) boasts the largest share of engagement dedicated to programming that debuted in 2025. Meanwhile, Paramount+’s male-skewing originals fit well with HBO Max’s female-leaning audience. To Lopez’s points, one can see the non-Netflix fits. 

It would be media malpractice to see HBO reduced to a mere tile in another company’s crowded streaming ecosystem. The small screen’s crown jewel deserves better than that, not only for its reputational value but for the tangible results it yields. Yes, time spent has become the all-powerful quarry of every streaming platform. No, HBO is not a content firehose designed to constantly scratch that itch. But much like the throne, crown and sword, the validation it offers is the first step in empowering whomever its parent company may be to rule the realm.