Texas Democrats say Gov. Greg Abbott’s blind loyalty to Donald Trump could be his demise, and the relationship wasn’t mentioned at all when Abbott announced Sunday at Houston’s East River 9 that he’s seeking a fourth term and he’s willing to spend $100 million to keep the Republican Party in power in the Lone Star State.
“We are Texans, and in 2026 we will remind the whole world that the spirit of Texas will never be broken,” Abbott said over a sea of red ball caps with his name on them. “We will defend this great state. We will leave our children and grandchildren a Texas that is safer, stronger, freer and more prosperous than ever before. “
One day prior to Abbott’s announcement, the Democrats held a rally at the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers union office in Houston, celebrating California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s Proposition 50 victory, which will allow state legislators to redistrict before the 2026 midterm elections, an effort to counter GOP-led gerrymandering in Texas.
Democrats facing off in the March 3 primary include state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, cattle rancher Bobby Cole, Marine veteran Nick Pappas, Bay City Councilman Benjamin Flores and teacher Megan Tehseldar. Houston businessman Andrew White, the son of the late former Gov. Mark White, is also running as a Democrat.
Although Texas has had many Democratic governors, Mark White, who served from 1983 to 1987, and Ann Richards, who was in office from 1991 to 1995, are the only Democrats Texas has elected to the top office in recent history.
Andrew White ran for governor in 2018 and lost the Democratic primary to former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez, who was ultimately defeated by Abbott.
Hinojosa, a civil rights and union lawyer, has strong support in the Rio Grande Valley, where she was raised, and increased her name recognition fighting against the STAAR test replacement exams during the most recent legislative session. She’s served five terms in the state House.
At Saturday’s rally, Hinojosa referenced the standoff between Texas Republicans and Democrats over the summer, when House Dems broke quorum to avoid voting on the redistricting map, meaning they also, temporarily, couldn’t vote on disaster response bills related to the deadly July 4 floods in the Hill Country.
“Too many Texans are struggling just to get by with housing, groceries, our electricity bills skyrocketing, and as we approach Veterans Day, let’s remember we have the most uninsured veterans in the whole country,” Hinojosa said. “Our schools are in crisis. Governor Abbott’s response to this was to try to take our power to hold him accountable. He was holding hostage flood relief, trying to extract these rigged maps.”
Governor Newsom, she said, responded when Abbott didn’t.
Republicans hoping to secure the nomination in March include retired U.S. Army surgeon Pete Chambers and law enforcement officer Ronnie Tullos.
The general election is in November 2026.
Abbott on Sunday highlighted lower property taxes and that under his leadership, the Texas Gross Domestic Product has increased to $2.7 trillion a year, making Texas the eighth-largest economy in the world. He said since he’s been governor, Texas has ranked No. 1 in America for the most new jobs and the best state for doing business.
“We value our faith, our families and our freedom,” he said. “We are a bastion of common sense. In a country that is reeling from far-left progressive insanity, Texas is the common-sense state in the United States. Texas is the heartbeat in this land we call America.”
He also referenced the Hill Country floods.
“We saw that grit and resolve on display once again this past summer when Texans responded to the catastrophic floods in Central Texas,” he said. “We will forever mourn the loss of every life, especially those precious little children. But when challenges arise, so do Texans.”
“We saw neighbor helping neighbor,” he added. “No one does it better than our fellow Texans. Our first responders rescued and evacuated more than 1,000 people, saving lives, and the state has invested more than half a billion dollars to help these communities rebuild and recover from the devastating floods.”
If Abbott, 67, gets re-elected, he’ll be the longest-serving governor in Texas history. It’s not entirely clear what he wants his legacy to be, but public safety, conservative public education policies and an overhaul of property taxes are among his top priorities. He’s rumored to be eyeing a 2028 presidential bid.
For a longtime governor who is well-known nationally, Abbott is running a rather aggressive campaign, experts say, and has repeatedly referenced a commitment to flipping Harris County “dark red.” He visited Cypress ahead of the November 4 elections, posing for photos with a Republican-backed slate of school board candidates that ultimately lost to a trio of progressives.
Abbott showed his loyalty to Trump by pushing through a mid-decade redistricting initiative, an effort that critics said was illegal, unnecessary and racist. It’s now being challenged in federal court and it remains to be seen if the intended purpose — securing five GOP seats in U.S. Congress — will play out the way Trump wants it to. Newsom’s Prop 50 appears to be a viable solution to those who want to ensure Democratic voting power in Congress.
Abbott also sent Texas National Guard troops to Chicago, which made him unpopular with Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker but earned him more favor with Trump.
University of Houston political science professor Brandon Rottinghaus said Abbott is beatable in 2026, but it will take a Herculean effort.
“The polling suggests that people are not satisfied with where Texas is and where Texas is going,” he said. “Polling indicates disappointment about the economy and worries about the future. You’ve got people saying that Texas is not a good model for the nation. Greg Abbott’s numbers are as bad as they’ve ever been in terms of approval and there are pinpoint issues that could be problematic for him.”
The Texas Politics Project reported in late October that Abbott’s approval rating is 39 percent.
But the Republican governor has a lot of money and that is “enough, usually, to be successful,” Rottinghaus said.
Republican political consultant Vinny Michillo told the Dallas Morning News, “As far as his election goes, it’s a done deal. Short of him putting kittens in a blender on television, I just don’t think there’s any way that he even gets close to losing.”
The Democratic Challengers
Harris County Democrats are eager for a change in leadership but some are hesitant when asked whether Hinojosa or White can pull it off. Rottinghaus said the Democrats have to focus on fundraising and messaging.
“Democrats are sending the message that affordability is the central issue of 2026,” he said. “The question is, will voters believe them or Republicans. There’s still a concern that even though property taxes have gone down, they’re still too high. I think there’s leverage that Democrats can use to their advantage, but it does require a significant amount of money to get that message out.”
Nationally, Democrats picked up some key seats last week with the election of Zohran Mamadani as mayor of New York and Democratic governors in Virginia and New Jersey.
“Democrats are unified and they’re willing to turn out; those are two things that didn’t happen in 2024,” Rottinghaus said. “The Democrats are re-energized. You’re seeing young voters and women, people of color. They’re all back, front and center. Whether it’ll hold a year from now is unknown but definitely that’s a positive sign for Democrats in Texas.”
Newsom’s Houston visit drew Harris County commissioners, Democratic state representatives Hinojosa, Nicole Collier and Gene Wu, and U.S. Reps. Jasmine Crockett, D-Dallas, Al Green, D-Houston and Lizzie Fletcher, D-Houston. They bashed Trump, lauded Newsom as the “next president,” and said it’s time for Texas to elect “a real governor.”
“At this moment, looking at all of you, I have never been more proud to be an American,” Wu said. “I have never been more proud of my fellow Americans. One thing I have learned through all this is that when the people are united and determined, we can do anything.”
Newsom on Saturday thanked the crowd of Texas Democrats for showing up “not just for yourselves, but this state, our nation and this world we’re trying to build.”
“Thank you for stepping up. Thank you for stepping in. Thank you for inspiring a nation, Texas. Thank you for inspiring the state of California,” he said. “You guys made this happen. We’re dealing with an invasive species.”
Newsom added that Trump is a historically unpopular president on every issue: the economy, tariffs, immigration and healthcare.
“He knows it. Why else did he make that call to your governor?” Newsom said, referencing an order from the U.S. Department of Justice to undertake mid-decade redistricting.
“It is dawning on people all across the United States of America what’s at stake,” he said. “People all across this country are waking up because you, Gene [Wu] and colleagues, had the courage months ago to step up at a time when we were desperate for leadership.”
The day after the Newsom rally, protesters lined the streets outside East River 9 as Abbott pulled up for his big announcement. Those who oppose Abbott said things like, “it’s time for a change,” and they think Abbott has done more for Trump and the wealthy than he has for middle-class Texans.
Rottinghaus said Trump is unpopular nationally and Abbott’s allegiance to the President could be a liability.
“There’s no way for any Republican to get too far away from Trump,” he said. “[The Texas governor’s race] is a national race, in effect. Any Republican is going to be tied to Trump. But he can still win tied to Trump as long as there’s a solid economy in Texas.”
What should Hinojosa, White and the other candidates be doing to prepare for the March primaries? “They should be raising money as we speak,” Rottinghaus said.
Both Democratic candidates have said that Abbott is power hungry and supports billionaires and Trump rather than the working class.
“He’s had 12 years to fix our schools and he hasn’t done it,” White told the Dallas Morning News, adding that Texas had lost more than 20 rural hospitals since 2010.
White’s son was a counselor at Camp La Junta off the Guadalupe River and helped usher young campers to safety during the Independence Day floods. White’s son and his fellow counselors and campers were uninjured, but the disaster, which resulted in more than 135 deaths, prompted White to run for governor, he has said.
“What makes me mad is that this was avoidable,” White told the Texas Tribune. “I’m not blaming it on one person. I’m blaming it on all of them. I was super excited to run eight years ago — I’m 10 times more excited to run this time. We need a change at the highest level.”
Hinojosa said at Saturday’s rally that after a quarter of a century in statewide politics, “Texans found out who Governor Abbott is, and they want change.”
“We are in a moment in time not of our choosing, but it chose us in a big, big way,” she said. “All we can do is choose to be the difference. We do not fear the future as Texans. We make the future. We own the future.”
Cole, the rancher candidate on the Democratic ticket, refers to Abbott as a “bull in a china shop” in a YouTube video on his website. Touting his second career as a firefighter, Cole said Texas is in a state of emergency that calls for a unified voice.
“[Abbott is] tearing up everything we’ve built, kissing up to bullies and billionaires who are taking every last dime out of our pockets,” Cole says in the video. “Well, I don’t give up that easy, on farms or people. Greg Abbott has let the state go up in flames, threatening families and the lives we’ve built. While we worked hard, he gutted schools, ignored the grid and stuck his nose in our personal lives.”
In a phone interview with the Houston Press on Friday, Cole said he’s worried about the future for his father, who depends on Social Security, and his grandchildren, who attend public schools.
“I’ve spent my whole life trying to build a farm and leave a legacy for my kids and my grandkids,” he said. “With the second coming of Trump and his authoritarian tendencies, I believe that’s at risk, and the legacy we’ve all been left and given — our democracy — is at risk.”
Immigration is vitally important to the Texas economy, Cole said, and he doesn’t understand why Abbott’s policies have been so adversarial rather than finding a way to help people live comfortably and affordably in Texas.
“We need a strong border,” he said. “And we absolutely need immigration. You come here, you contribute, you stay employed, you keep your nose clean and you help build this state. It’s only fair that you be given a pathway to citizenship eventually because we’ve got to have you. As governor of Texas, you’ve got a lot of sway and you could start advocating for a pathway to citizenship and start solving this immigration dilemma that we’re in.”
The candidate famously (sort of) put the Texas Tribune Festival, which begins Thursday, on blast on social media last month for neglecting to invite him to a panel discussion for gubernatorial candidates. The reason Cole was left off the guest list, he said, is that he didn’t “have the campaign funds to impress the establishment.” His contributions totaled about $34,000 as of last week, according to Transparency USA.
“Whether I’m a legitimate candidate or not, I think Gina and Andrew are going to win urban votes, but I think I have a unique perspective or opportunity to earn a lot more suburban and rural votes than a Democratic candidate has won in Texas in a long time because of my background and my story,” he said.
“It’s going to be a tough row to hoe to get through this primary, but I believe if I can get through the primary, I’ve got the best chance to beat Greg Abbott,” he added.
Cole’s biggest criticisms of Abbott are not expanding Medicaid and underfunding education in an effort to privatize it.
“If you had any doubt what he was wanting to do, when they passed that voucher scam, you knew what the endgame was, to privatize our public education,” Cole said. “Who could blame our schools for falling behind and starting to fail? They’ve been kneecapped, and he’s done it.”
The Republicans
Since Abbott has not put kittens in a blender on television, it seems highly unlikely that he’ll lose the Republican primary. The challenger candidates are not well known and even if they were, it wouldn’t matter, Rottinghaus said.
“Nobody’s going to beat Greg Abbott in the primary,” he said.
The governor is a former Texas Supreme Court justice and attorney general. In his first election in 2014, he defeated former state Sen. Wendy Davis by 20 percentage points. The Texas governor earns an annual salary of $153,750 and is not term-limited. The governor holds “a lot of power,” Rottinghaus said, crediting former Gov. Rick Perry with strengthening the authority of the state’s top elected official.
“The governor is extremely important now,” Rottinghaus said.
For many years, Republicans had an insular campaign strategy, focused on existing GOP voters, Rottinghaus said.
“They didn’t have to do much beyond that because they had a base that was going to support them,” he said. “This might be a different year. Independents are definitely unhappy with the state of the economy, and Republicans are shellshocked by Trump and some of the decisions he’s made. That, plus a resurgent Democratic base, could very well be a problem for Republican incumbents.”
Abbott’s strategy to run like an underdog — with text-messaging campaigns and a re-election anouncement in historically blue Harris County — is a good one, Rottinghaus said.
“He’s spent a lot of money on down-ballot races, which has been successful for the down-ballot Republicans but also good for him because a lot of those opportunities stir up Republicans,” he said.
In 2023, House Republicans blocked a voucher-style plan to let parents use tax money to pay for private education, so Abbott got involved in primary races and helped oust eight Republicans who stood in the way of his school choice proposal, the Dallas Morning News reported.
A revamped voucher program sailed through in the session that ended this summer, prompting supporters to claim Abbott saved education while critics say the plan, which launches ahead of the 2026-27 school year, could dismantle public schools.
Ronnie Tullos, a captain at the San Jacinto County Sheriff’s Office, said people should vote for him in the Republican primary because he’s not a career politician. In a race heavily dependent on fundraising, Tullos has thus far received about $34,760 in contributions, most of which came from Silsbee rapper Sedrick Cartwright, who goes by “Sed Tha Cannibal.”
“I relate to the blue-collar workers,” Tullos said. “How do politicians know what’s best for the people in the state of Texas? They don’t. Back in the ‘70s, when we were growing up, we didn’t have food on the table. I remember not having power sometimes. [Career politicians] can’t relate to that.”
Tullos placed third in the Republican primary for Texas House District 18 in 2022, losing to incumbent Ernest Bailes and securing 11.6 percent of the vote. Although he’s rarely mentioned in reports on the governor’s race, Tullos said he’s “for the people, and I am the people.”
He said he wasn’t impressed by the House Democrats breaking quorum and fleeing the state to oppose redistricting, calling it a dereliction of duty.
“You don’t leave because you don’t believe in something,” he said. “You sit there and you try to make a difference and make a change.”
The candidate has also been critical of Abbott, saying he “doesn’t have the backbone to get anything done,” and that Texas simply follows other states and reacts, often poorly, to catastrophes.
Race to the White House
Many Texas government watchdogs believe that Abbott wants to be president and would have run in 2024 had Trump not been the clear GOP nominee. Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and Vice President JD Vance have also entered the chat about potential 2028 candidates. Cruz was the runner-up to Trump in 2016 for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination.
Rottinghaus said Abbott ought to be in the conversation.
“He led the way on immigration,” Rottinghaus said. “He’s a vigorous fundraiser. He’s from a big Republican state that has reformed the Republican Party into the new version of what that party has become. That’s a series of wins that is hard to reproduce.”
Perry unsuccessfully ran twice for President, and George W. Bush is the only former Texas governor who made it to the White House.
Abbott didn’t bring up plans for a presidential bid at Sunday’s event, instead attempting to focus on work that needs to be done in Texas, such as affordable housing and healthcare.
“We must keep Texas the best state in America to raise a family,” he said.
The post Can Anyone Beat Greg Abbott in 2026? appeared first on Houston Press.
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