Bill Gates’ Optimism Comes With ‘Footnotes’ After a Tough Year for the World

<img decoding="async" class="size-full-width wp-image-1610139" src="https://observer.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/01/GettyImages-2244545176-e1768254184760.jpg?quality=80&w=657" alt="Bill Gates in a blue sweater.” width=”657″ height=”440″ data-caption=’In a sobering annual message, Bill Gates warns that global aid cuts and unchecked A.I. could derail progress. <span class=”media-credit”>Hans Gutknecht/MediaNews Group/Los Angeles Daily News via Getty Images</span>’>

Bill Gates is well known for his unfailing optimism. A tough 2025, however, has put cracks in that trademark outlook. “These days, my optimism comes with footnotes,” the philanthropist wrote in an annual 2026 letter posted to his website, Gates Notes, on Friday (Jan. 9). Much of Gates’ newfound negativity stems from a troubling reversal in global child mortality, an area long central to the work of the Gates Foundation. Over the past 25 years, child deaths have more than halved from 10 million. In 2025, however, the figure climbed to 4.8 million, from the previous year’s 4.6 million—marking the first increase this century.

Gates, who described this reversal as “the thing I am most upset about,” highlighted the issue in his foundation’s annual Goalkeepers Report in December. The report linked the uptick in child deaths to aid cuts from wealthy nations such as the U.S., warning that an additional 12 million more children could die by 2045 if global health funding continues to fall by roughly 20 percent.

Unsurprisingly, restoring aid budgets is one of Gates’ central goals for 2026. While conceding that spending cuts “won’t be reversed overnight,” he described budget growth as “critical” and said he plans to spend much of the year advocating for more global aid by engaging with health care workers, religious groups and community leaders.

Another one of the billionaire’s priorities this year is applying A.I. to advance global solutions and reduce inequality. In climate change, for example, the technology could help provide impoverished farmers with top-tier advice on weather patterns, pricing, crop disease and soil health. The Gates Foundation has pledged $1.4 billion to this area.

A.I. could also improve health care by accelerating both the development and delivery of medical innovations, while education could become more personalized through wider use of the technology. Along with climate, these areas stand to benefit from the “right government focus,” according to Gates. “This year I will spend a lot of time meeting with pioneers all over the world to see which countries are doing the best work so we can spread best practices,” he added.

Yet, even as he touts A.I.’s potential, Gates remains deeply concerned about its risks. Some of its most alarming threats include potential use by bad actors, according to the Microsoft founder, who said that he considers a non-government group using A.I. to design a bioterrorism weapon to be a greater risk today than another pandemic.

Gates also used his annual letter to caution about job disruption tied to A.I.’s rise, especially in software development, warehouse work and phone-based support roles. As the labor impact of the technology intensifies over the next five years, he argued, governments must begin preparing with policies addressing wealth distribution and the evolving role of work in society.

Still, the letter ends on a familiar note of guarded hope. Despite his newly tempered optimism, Gates reaffirmed his belief in humanity’s ability to anticipate challenges, prepare for them and act collectively for the greater good. “As hard as last year was, I don’t believe we will slide back into the Dark Ages,” he wrote. “I believe that, within the next decade, we will not only get the world back on track but enter a new era of unprecedented progress.”