We can all recall when global business felt largely predictable. Boards could commit to multi-year strategies with genuine confidence, supply chains stretched across continents without strain, capital moved freely to the most promising opportunities and geopolitics lived on the “external risk” page of the board pack rather than at the center of discussions. While this world has been fading for several years, 2025 will be remembered as the year of the great reset in international trade and business. The assumptions that defined the last three decades of globalization no longer hold.
Today, directors across industries feel the ground shifting beneath them. Governments have rediscovered industrial policy as an instrument of national advantage; trade rules are shaped more by alliances, domestic political interests and security priorities than market logic; and technology, once assumed to be frictionless and global, increasingly decouples along geopolitical fault lines, regulatory firewalls and ideological camps. Expansion now requires a pause. Increasingly, companies consider the option of retreating from select international markets as seriously as further expansion.
Directors encounter this new reality in very practical moments:
- A long-trusted supplier suddenly captured by export controls
- A promising growth market becoming politically fraught overnight
- Cross-border capital subject to national-interest screening
- Technology infrastructure reframed as sovereign strategy rather than corporate asset
Consider Nvidia’s rapid reversal in China, a striking example of how quickly the ground can move beneath even the most dominant players. Once commanding nearly the entire Chinese market for advanced A.I. chips, the company saw its share collapse from about 95 percent to near zero after U.S. export restrictions took effect.
A similar shift occurred when the Dutch government intervened to assert control of Nexperia, a Netherlands-based semiconductor firm under Chinese ownership. Beijing responded by halting exports from Nexperia’s factories in China, a move that disrupted supply to European carmakers, illustrating how technological interdependence now carries strategic and political risk.
These events are not isolated disruptions but signs of a structural shift from globalization to a fragmented, politically charged international business environment. CEOs and executives face an operating context they have never encountered, and boards cannot leave strategy solely to management. They must interpret risk signals, anticipate political currents and provide informed guidance on geopolitical and regulatory exposure.
The old playbook, effective for the past three decades, is running out of steam. The world has changed too much for business as usual. The good news is that many boards have woken up to this reality and are responding, asking tougher questions, seeking fresh insights and treating geopolitics not as noise but as code to be cracked. Forward-thinking directors see this moment as an opportunity to tighten governance, sharpen decision-making and build resilience that lasts. After all, fortunes take shape in uncertain times.
Leading without the comfort of certainty
For years, board judgment was built on experience and the ability to recognize familiar patterns. But in today’s environment, patterns dissolve almost as fast as they appear. As one chair told us, “Our job now isn’t just to recognize patterns anymore. It’s to know when the pattern itself has changed and to change with it.”
This calls for a different kind of board leadership: one built on humility, readiness to question assumptions, discipline to explore multiple futures and courage amid uncertainty. It is less about conviction or projecting certainty and more about exercising steadiness, composure and curiosity in the face of complexity.
Strategy as a continuous practice
Boards once addressed strategy in set moments: three-year exercises, annual deep dives or structured off-sites. That cadence suited a slower world. Now, strategy is a constant, woven through every meeting, committee discussion and briefing. Whether the topic is capital allocation, technology, supply chain resilience, regulation or talent, strategy has become the constant backdrop to board decision-making. As one director put it, “Strategy never leaves the boardroom anymore.” That does not mean boards should encroach on execution. Rather, they must maintain an always-on strategic posture, connecting dots across markets, regulatory regimes and technological developments faster than in the past.
Resilience as everyday governance
Resilience is no longer only operational; it is a board mindset. Effective boards see the broader picture, identify discontinuities and build the capacity to adjust quickly and intelligently when conditions shift. This doesn’t mean living in permanent crisis mode, but staying engaged between meetings, seeking diverse inputs, asking “what if?” before disruption arrives and treating resilience as a strategic capability requiring investment.
In practice, resilience shows up in seemingly small but decisive choices: securing second sources for critical inputs, preserving flexibility in markets and supply chains, investing in adaptive leadership and resisting the urge to optimize efficiency at the expense of adaptability. The past era rewarded scale and precision. The next will favor boards that equip organizations to bend without breaking, where adaptation is not an emergency response, but a deliberate strategic stance.
Ensuring the right minds and competencies are in the room
A world shaped by shifting geopolitics, security, technology and cross-border regulation demands boards with wider perspectives and expertise. Increasingly, companies are seeking directors who understand policy environments, digital and data sovereignty, emerging-market dynamics and stakeholder expectations, and who are comfortable challenging assumptions without destabilizing management.
Boards must also invest in building their own geopolitical literacy. This may involve hiring directors with networks to interact with political elites globally and encouraging board members to develop deeper insights into specific markets and potential challenges. In many cases, boards will need members who can help the company navigate sensitive dialogues with political actors around the world.
A new board-CEO compact
As geopolitical complexity intensifies, the relationship between boards and management is evolving with it. The old rhythm, with the CEO or management designing the strategy and the board reviewing it at a comfortable distance, is giving way to a more fluid, ongoing exchange. This is not about boards stepping into execution or second-guessing every move, but about partnering in sense-making, testing assumptions early and helping the organization stay oriented before pressure forces a reaction. It also recognizes that most CEOs have never experienced an operating environment like the one they face today and therefore need coaching and advice to make sense of it.
In this working mode, trust and transparency become preconditions, not mere cultural niceties. When directors and executives share real-time awareness of emerging signals and have the trust to debate them from multiple angles, decisions can be made with clarity and decisiveness. Formal processes still matter, but formal authority alone is no longer enough. Boards that cling to hierarchy or ego risk slowing the organizations they are meant to guide, while those that cultivate openness, curiosity and mutual respect can move with greater confidence and speed.
Opportunity in adversity
It is tempting to view this moment only through the lens of risks. But disruption and fragmentation also create possibilities. New industrial hubs are emerging, energy systems are being rebuilt, regional innovation clusters are forming and governments are investing in digital and strategic infrastructure. Reshuffling existing trade relationships and supply structures creates space for those who move decisively. Volatility is real, but so is opportunity. Boards that move early and decisively while thinking long-term will shape the next wave of winners.
Thomas Keil and Marianna Zangrillo are authors of The Next Board: Delivering Value Today while Making the Board Fit for Tomorrow published by Routledge.
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