NFL Week 11: Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

The Houston Texans fished their season out of the grease last Sunday afternoon with a comeback for the ages against the Jacksonville Jaguars. 26 unanswered fourth quarter points did the trick, as Davis Mills etched his name into the “single game legend” list in Texans lore. 

Now, the team is back on the road for the first time in a month, and if they go to Nashville and lose to the woeful 1-8 Tennessee Titans, it essentially erases all of the excitement and good that came from last week’s game. 

The good news is that, even in an NFL where it feels like anything can happen, the numbers just don’t add up to an upset here. The Texans have allowed the fewest points in the NFL, the Titans are the lowest scoring offense in the NFL. The last sixteen times this confluence has occurred, in NFL history, the best defense has won the game, and by an average of 19.5 point in scoring margin. 

So let’s take a look at the keys to the Texans getting back to .500 on the season, and hanging around on the fringe of the playoff hunt:

4. Keep the rookies cooking 

DeMeco Ryans said it himself on his coach’s radio show this week on SportsRadio 610 — the players labeled as “rookies” on the roster, now nine games in, cannot function as rookies anymore. “No more rookies,” were Ryans’ exact words. It showed in the win over Jacksonville, with major contributions from Woody Marks (84 total yards, one TD), Jayden Higgins (TD receiving), and Jaylin Noel (four catches, 34 yards). This must continue, if the Texans are to make a run in December, and more imminently, win on Sunday. 

3. Special teams upgrade necessary

Last week against the Jaguars may have been the worst special teams performance from the Texans this decade. Frank Ross’ unit committed a lost fumble on a kickoff return, allowed a punt return for a touchdown, and had numerous gaffes in covering kickoffs, as well. That cannot happen on Sunday. The only way the Titans hang around in this game is by scoring points (or gaining field position advantages) with the Texans’ defense off the field. In other words, no busts on special teams this week. 

2. Davis Mills, no gifts 

Similarly, the Texans cannot commit turnovers in this game. This is another way the Titans can succeed without having the Texans’ elite defense involved. Last week, Davis Mills threw a pick on the Texans’ side of the 50 yard line on the third play of the game. That’s unacceptable under any circumstance, but especially against an offensively challenged team that shouldn’t be spending much time at all in Texans territory — unless they hand them gifts, like fumbles and interceptions. 

1. Cam Ward demolition

Cam Ward has been sacked 38 times this season, which is practically a “rookie year David Carr” level pace. Some of that is poor line play, but some of it is Ward’s tendency to hold onto the football too long. If he does that on Sunday, and there is zero evidence to indicate he won’t, then Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, fresh off Defensive Player of the Week honors, should feast.

SPREAD: Texans -6.5

PREDICTION: Texans 27, Titans 13

SEASON RECORD: 4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS 

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