This past Sunday afternoon, the Houston Texans, led by backup quarterback Davis Mills, did sports fans in the Houston area a massive favor in their 36-29 comeback win over Jacksonville — they kept the NFL relevant in these here parts for at least a few more weeks.
The Texans sit at 4-5 on the season, which, for a team that was a clear cut favorite to at least repeat as division champs in 2025, is still a disappointment. When you start a season 0-3, it can take forever to crawl out of that hole. The Texans are finding that out the hard way.
It doesn’t help things that other teams in the division have woken up. Despite the win over the Jags on Sunday, the Texans remain a game behind them. The Jags are 5-4. The surprise of the season league wide has been the Indianapolis Colts, who sit at 8-2, but have yet to play the Texans. At least the Titans are still a joke, having fired their coach a month ago. Some things never change.
So add all of it up, and where are the Texans right now on the odds boards, for the Super Bowl, the conference, and the AFC South? The Super Bowl odds go like this:
| Super Bowl LX | ||
| Kansas City Chiefs | 6/1 | |
| Los Angeles Rams | 13/2 | (+650) |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 15/2 | (+750) |
| Detroit Lions | 8/1 | |
| Buffalo Bills | 9/1 | |
| Seattle Seahawks | 10/1 | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 11/1 | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 11/1 | |
| Green Bay Packers | 14/1 | |
| Denver Broncos | 18/1 | |
| New England Patriots | 20/1 | |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 25/1 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 28/1 | |
| San Francisco 49ers | 33/1 | |
| HOUSTON TEXANS | 66/1 | |
| Chicago Bears | 80/1 | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 100/1 | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 100/1 | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 150/1 | |
| Minnesota Vikings | 150/1 | |
| Atlanta Falcons | 250/1 | |
| Carolina Panthers | 300/1 | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 400/1 | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 500/1 | |
| Washington Commanders | 750/1 | |
| Cleveland Browns | 1000/1 | |
| Miami Dolphins | 1000/1 | |
| New Orleans Saints | 1500/1 | |
| New York Giants | 1500/1 | |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 2000/1 | |
| New York Jets | 2000/1 | |
| Tennessee Titans | 2000/1 | |
Basically, there is a clear divide that ends at San Francisco at 33/1, and begins with the Texans at 66/1. After the Texans, there are 17 teams below them. Essentially, the Texans are the kings of the “no shot” teams. If I may point out one very wild thing about these odds — the favorite to win the Super Bowl, the Kansas City Chiefs, wouldn’t make the playoffs if the season ended today. THAT is respect.
The conference odds are pretty similar, with the Texans at 33/1 to win the AFC, with seven teams below them. In other words, the Texans are as average as an NFL team comes, in the eyes of the oddsmakers.
Finally, there is the AFC South, where the Texans have ruled the roost the last two seasons, with a 10-7 record and two divisional crowns. Well, in order to win it this season, they’ll need a massive collapse in Indianapolis, as these are the current odds:
| Indianapolis Colts | 2/9 | (-450) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 9/2 | (+450) |
| Houston Texans | 10/1 | |
| Tennessee Ttians | 300/1 | |
At this point, the Colts are playing so well, the Texans just need to focus game by game, and stack some wins, and let the chips fall where they may. 10-7 probably won’t win the division this season, but it should land them a wild card berth. The bottom line is the Texans MUST win the Titans (Week 11), Cardinals (Week 15), and Raiders (Week 16) games.
From there, they’ll need to win three of the five games against the Bills (Week 12), Colts (Week 13 and 18), Chiefs (Week 14), and Chargers (Week 17). It’s all doable, but the Texans have left no margin for error, and there is very little belief in them out there in the marketplace.
The post Houston Texans Still Massive Long Shot to Win AFC South appeared first on Houston Press.
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