The Latest Storm Tracker Forecast from Meteorologist Kevin Appleby:
After a cold start, a bit of sun and an increasing southerly flow will boost the temperatures close to seasonal averages for Friday. Temperatures will stay seasonable through the weekend, but a big cooldown looms for early next week with temperatures more closely resembling early to mid December by then.
Winds will gust upwards of 30 MPH at times into this evening ahead of our next system. Prior to sunset, showers are likely north and west of Albany, mainly west of I-87 into the Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley, and parts of the Northern Catskills as well.
For the Capital Region and points south and east, the vast majority of shower activity will hold off until after dark. It won’t be raining too long (an hour to two) and the intensity of rain will be light to locally moderate. Showers should taper almost entirely for the region by 10-11 PM (A sprinkle or two is possible here and there into Saturday morning, but nothing steady is anticipated.
Temperatures shouldn’t drop a ton overnight as precipitation chances decrease. A south wind will persist, preventing temperatures from dropping. Clouds should stick around into early Saturday morning as well.
Saturday looks like the brightest, mildest, and driest of the next 7, with high temperatures in the low to mid 50s in most locations. There will be a light breeze, pivoting to blow from the northwest later in the day.
Another system will be heading our way for the second half of the weekend. It’s not a total washout Sunday, but rain will likely be a bit more widespread & steadier by Sunday evening. Highs will once again be close to normal – upper 40s and lower 50s.
There are still question marks at this time regarding Monday’s exact forecast, particularly with the extent of precipitation we will have to contend with. An area of low pressure should develop to our east, but guidance differs in its intensity and thus, precip coverage. A scenario exists where enough cold air is brought down from our north to even give valley areas a chance for some AM flakes, but most guidance today is painting a bit of a drier scenario – morning rain showers (and mountain snow showers) becoming less numerous as the day progresses. Confidence is, however, very high in temperatures taking a tumble as an upper level disturbance looks to influence our forecast through the next work week.
The breeze will pick up with this upper level low moving in, as well, peaking on Tuesday. Veteran’s Day also happens to be a day where temperatures will dip to the point where it might be a struggle to rise to 40 degrees! Factor in some 30 MPH wind gusts and you have yourselves a slice of mid-December. The breeze will flow off the Great Lakes, generating clouds each day. On Tuesday, the air aloft will be cold enough to support snow showers and flurries here and there. I wouldn’t plan on much in terms of accumulation, but even in Albany precip would likely reach the warm ground as flakes. I think on Wednesday we see the lake-effect setup briefly re-orient itself to spare much of the region from showers outside of the Mohawk Valley and Adirondacks, but the winds will shift Wednesday night into Thursday, creating a more region-wide threat for a few rain and high elevation snow showers by then. Temperatures will generally top out in the mid 40s Wednesday and Thursday.
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