The Latest Storm Tracker Forecast from Meteorologist Kevin Appleby:
Ahead of a strong cold front which will bring widespread, locally heavy rain to the region tomorrow morning, temperatures and wind gusts spike to provide a more early-fall feel to the region this afternoon. Beyond a burst of early morning rain, shower activity looks to be more scattered and intermittent for the remainder of Monday. Temperatures slide gradually through this 7-Day Forecast as we look to remain a bit unsettled through the work week.
Winds will increase through the afternoon, with gust up to 40 MPH possible before sunset. With this wind coming from the south, it will boost temperatures into the 70s this afternoon. Cloud cover will continue to build through the afternoon into the evening.
The gusty winds, continuing overnight, will keep temperatures unseasonably mild. Scattered showers are possible afternoon midnight.
Temperatures might fail to drop below 60 degrees by tomorrow morning locally! Either that, or they won’t drop to that point until the rain intensity picks up early Monday morning.
Plan on a tough morning commute. Even if it’s not pouring at every exit along your route, chances are the rain will slow you down at some point. It will continue to be gusty, and a rumble or two of thunder is possible in the morning.
Beyond 10 AM, the rain won’t be nearly as widespread or consistently heavy. Expect occasional scattered showers for the remainder of Monday.
Highs will be reached early in the day – likely low to mid 60s before the rain cools us down and winds shift to be out of the west-northwest. Wind gusts will ease up by Monday evening.
A general half inch to an inch of rain can be expected, but there will be locally higher and locally lower rainfall totals. This is more of a feast-or-famine setup than recent rain events here, but all indications from the guidance point towards the heavy rain Monday morning, the vast majority of the anticipated rain totals, being rather widespread.
Not that the winds disappear beyond Monday, but they will be far less than what we experience over the next 36 hours or so. Tuesday looks like a decent day, but with thickening PM cloud cover and evening showers ahead of another system. In wake of that front, showers will continue on and off throughout Wednesday. Rainfall amounts Wednesday will be much less than Monday (a general 0.10″ – 0.25″). After highs exceed 60 Tuesday, they will struggle to recover to that value Wednesday.
Cooler air will enter the region behind this midweek system via a breeze out of the northwest. This should instigate a lake response, so expect rain showers at times Thursday, with the highest likelihood of seeing these showers west of Albany and up in Southern Vermont. The lake-effect setup should deteriorate Friday, allowing for a bit more in the way of sunshine. As the setup weakens, some guidance suggests there may be some snow flakes in the high elevations of the Adirondacks Friday morning! Don’t expect accumulation, but that is certainly a sign of the times ahead. Drier conditions for all look to build in by Saturday, with seasonably cool highs in the low to mid 50s.
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