The Latest Storm Tracker Forecast from Meteorologist Kevin Appleby:
Areas of morning fog will burn off and yield mainly sunny skies for the remainder of your Friday. Cloud cover will increase later Saturday ahead of a coastal system which looks to bring clouds, cooler conditions, and some rain to the region early next week.
After the cold (sub-freezing for many!) start to the day, temperatures will rebound thanks to the sunshine and a developing south-southeast flow, with highs getting back close to 60 degrees when all is said and done.
That south-southeast wind, with a bit of an ocean influence, will help generate low clouds for southern areas into Saturday morning, with more consistently clear skies expected north of I-90 supporting lower temperatures. Everyone, however, will be warmer than this morning.
A bright start for many (again, a few AM low clouds down south) will become a bit cloudier, especially by sunset on Saturday. I can’t rule out a quick-hitting, light rain shower here in there over the Mid-Hudson, Catskills, or Mohawk Valley tomorrow afternoon. But, most of us will stay dry, and nearly everyone won’t see measurable rainfall on Saturday.
A better chance for that moves in towards the end of the holiday weekend. A coastal low continues to get its act together near the southeast coast. This will lift northwards over the coming days. Now, I will say, guidance is still varying at this time in terms of placement of the low, and speed (timing) of when the rain gets here.
The most favored solution is one that seeing showers overspread the region from south to north later Sunday and Sunday night, with on and off rain continuing Monday. Generally, rainfall totals will be higher south of I-90, closer to the center of this coastal low.
A breeze will pick up later Sunday through Monday with this system as well. I think, based on the favored track, gusts to 25 MPH or so can be expected locally, with the best chance for 30+ MPH gusts found in the Berkshires and Southern Greens. After temperatures climb into the lower 60s Sunday, they will struggle to climb through the 50s on Monday with more consistent clouds and wet weather.
Guidance continues to differ on how long this coastal low meanders to our east. The closer it is, the more clouds and higher shower chances we will have. Generally, expect breaks of sun Tuesday with the threat for a passing shower or two, with favored drier, brighter conditions by Wednesday. By Thursday, I expect temperatures to once again struggle to get out of the 50s, like today, but with partly cloudy skies.
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