Why the Blackhawks have such a wide range of possibilities this season

At this career stage, Blackhawks veterans such as Tyler Bertuzzi, Teuvo Teravainen and Connor Murphy pretty much are what they are.

It’s not impossible for an NHL player to substantially improve in his late 20s or early 30s — as forward Ryan Donato demonstrated last season, thanks to an overhaul of his skating technique — but it’s rare.

Even accounting for year-to-year variations in luck and playing time, the range of possible outcomes for a player such as Bertuzzi is small. He entered last season with three separate 21-goal seasons to his name. He finished the season with 23 goals for the Hawks, right on par.

Health is often the biggest reason for fluctuation, whether it’s negatively because of an injury (Jason Dickinson last season) or positively because of finding a rhythm after an injury (Ilya Mikheyev last season).

Younger Hawks players such as Connor Bedard, Frank Nazar, Sam Rinzel, Artyom Levshunov and Spencer Knight are far less certain commodities — still developing and improving as they gain skills and experience.

Their valuations are based more on potential and less on track record. They might end up reaching or exceeding their projected ceiling, or they might fall short. The range of possible outcomes is wide.

This coming season, the Hawks will have a ton of players every night in that category, given how wholeheartedly they have committed to their youth movement.

In addition to the five guys noted above, other young players who will compete for NHL roster spots and playing time include Oliver Moore, Ryan Greene, Nick Lardis, Landon Slaggert, Colton Dach, Samuel Savoie, Kevin Korchinski, Ethan Del Mastro, Wyatt Kaiser (once his contract situation is resolved), Nolan Allan and Drew Commesso.

Even Hawks stalwarts such as Alex Vlasic, Lukas Reichel and Arvid Soderblom are still young enough to improve significantly.

That gives the Hawks as a team a wide range of outcomes. It’s difficult to predict what their lineup will look like, much less how competitive it will be against 31 opponents.

But this uncertainty is also intriguing — a welcome departure from the last few seasons, when the Hawks were full of placeholder veterans.

Expectations for the team this season are just as low as they have been. The Hawks — the first team since the late-1990s Lightning to win fewer than 30 games in five consecutive seasons — are projected to land at the bottom of the standings yet again.

FanDuel projects them for 68.5 points, the lowest in the league (two below the Sharks). DraftKings projects them for 67.5, also the lowest. JFresh, a popular hockey analytics account on X, projects the Hawks for 75 points, the fourth-lowest.

But those projections don’t capture the wider range of possibilities. Yes, the Hawks have a higher chance of falling well short of their projected point total — a terrifying thought. But they also have a higher chance of greatly exceeding it — an exciting thought.

Almost every year, a few teams break free of bottom-feeder expectations in the preseason, fool everyone and hang around on the playoff bubble.

Last season, the Canadiens were projected for 76.5 points, earned 91 and squeaked into the playoffs. The Blue Jackets (projected for 67.5, earning 89) and the Flames (projected for 81.5, earning 96) almost made it.

The season before that, the Predators (projected for 86.5 points, earning 99) made the playoffs, and the Flyers (projected for 75.5, earning 87) held a playoff spot for months before a late collapse.

Those examples will fuel optimism for the Sharks, Ducks, Kraken, Red Wings and Sabres this fall as much as they will for the Hawks. Maybe only one of those teams will become this season’s example. But anything is possible.

It’s worth calling extra attention to last season’s Blue Jackets in particular. After the tragic death of their best player, Johnny Gaudreau, last August, they appeared on paper to be one of the worst teams in recent history.

However, they changed their trajectory with career years from two veterans (Zach Werenski and Sean Monahan), major growth from several young players (Kirill Marchenko, Adam Fantilli and Kent Johnson) and one savvy waiver claim (Dante Fabbro).

So what might lead to the Hawks greatly exceeding their projections this season? A stardom-cementing breakout from Bedard would almost certainly need to be the first ingredient. If he averages more than a point per game and improves defensively, that would make a big difference.

A best-case scenario also might include Knight proving himself to be an above-average NHL goalie, Nazar continuing his impressive rate of growth, Rinzel handling 23 minutes per game the way he did in his nine-game cameo last spring or even Andre Burakovsky enjoying a renaissance similar to Monahan’s in Columbus.

Luck would be necessary, too: key players staying healthy and the Hawks scraping out lots of close wins and overtime points. The latter was a major part of the Canadiens’ and Flames’ success last season; they were a combined 37-6-25 in games decided by one goal. The Hawks went 7-9-11 in such games.

All of this being said, while fantasizing about the Hawks’ best-case scenario, it’s important not to disregard the equal chance of a worst-case scenario.

This extremely young, extremely unproven team could be a total disaster. If this season’s Hawks are not last season’s Blue Jackets, they could be what the Jackets were supposed to be: one of the worst teams in recent history.

If Bedard or Nazar stagnates or is injured, the offense could be hopelessly punchless. The defense, with just one player older than 24 (Murphy), will be inconsistent no matter what, so if the young defensemen don’t develop individually or jell together, things could get messy. If Knight’s .893 save percentage in his first 15 starts was a sign of things to come, the goaltending might be no better.

That’s the nature of things at the beginning of a youth movement: Nobody really knows what’s going to happen.

At the very least, it will be interesting to find out.