2025-26 college football bowl confidence picks, from Ducks over Dukes on down

With confidence, one could say college football’s bowl season is less relevant than ever.

The playoff leaves little oxygen for every team that’s not in it.

Just ask Notre Dame. Or Iowa State, Kansas State, Florida State, Auburn, Rutgers, Baylor and UCF. All of them declined bowl bids, though not all with Irish-level indignation.

Confidence pools at bowl time are, on the other hand, surging in popularity. They involve three quintessential American pursuits: watching football, gambling money into the wind and taking strong positions on things about which we know next to nothing.

The good news is, I’m here for you. I literally get paid to take strong positions on things about which I know next to nothing.

Casting your lot in one of these pools is simple. Step 1: Pick your winners of every postseason game. Step 2: Assign a “confidence” number to each winner. Step 3: Pray for preposterous good luck.

There are 36 bowls outside the playoff plus four first-round playoff games whose matchups we already know. Leaving the rest of the playoff out of the equation, that’s 40 winners to pick. Assign 40 points to the winner you’re most confident in and descend in order until you’ve assigned a single point to the winner in which you’re least confident.

Or just crib off my picks below. You can thank/excoriate me later.

I’ll use my first-round playoff picks as examples. Oregon is such a silly lock to beat James Madison, I’m putting 40 points on the Ducks. Similar is Ole Miss against Tulane; I have the giant favorites for 39. Then — harder, indeed — 30 on Texas A&M over Miami and 21 on Alabama over Oklahoma.

Now, let’s get to the rest.

Celebration: South Carolina State vs. Prairie View A&M, Saturday

A meaningless 1 on SCSU because its name is easier to abbreviate.

LA: Boise State vs. Washington, Saturday

Key Huskies don’t seem to be opting out, which is all I need to see to put 36 on a good Big Ten team.

Salute to Veterans: Troy vs. Jacksonville State, Tuesday

Jax State runs the ball like crazy, worth an 8.

Cure: Old Dominion vs. South Florida, Wednesday

ODU’s QB1 says he’s sitting this one out. USF for 23.

68 Ventures: Louisiana vs. Delaware, Wednesday

The game’s in Mobile, Ala., and you know what that means. I don’t, either. Ragin’ Cajuns for 6.

Xbox: Arkansas State vs. Missouri State, Thursday

Am I the only one having flashbacks to wanting to heave a kid’s gaming console out the window? A 4 on Arky State.

Myrtle Beach: Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan, Friday

A 7-1 MAC team gets 24-point respect here.

Gasparilla: Memphis vs. NC State, Friday

Rolling 7 on sneaky-good Memphis.

Famous Idaho Potato: Washington State vs. Utah State, Monday

Wazzu is still out for respect after being left for dead when the Pac-12 dissolved — 28.

Boca Raton: Louisville vs. Toledo, Dec. 23

The Ville — fresh off beating the brakes off Kentucky 41-0 — gets 34.

New Orleans: Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss, Dec. 23

These teams are coin-flip close, but Southern Miss’ steadier hand at QB merits a 15.

Frisco: UNLV vs. Ohio, Dec. 23

As long as Rebels QB Anthony Colandrea plays, he’ll be the best dude on the field — 26 on Vegas.

Hawaii: California vs. Hawaii, Dec. 24

Cal for 5, but don’t be so surprised. You thought it would be a Hawaii 5, oh?

GameAbove Sports: Central Michigan vs. Northwestern, Dec. 26

A Wildcats no-doubter, folks — 38.

Rate: New Mexico vs. Minnesota, Dec. 26

A 33 on the Gophers, who are 6-0 in bowls under P.J. Fleck.

First Responder: FIU vs. UTSA, Dec. 26

UTSA 48, Tulane 26 was quite the score against a (ahem) playoff team — 35 on the Roadrunners.

Military: Pittsburgh vs. East Carolina, Dec. 27

Taking a big upset swing here with 22 on ECU, which upset NC State in this same bowl a year ago.

Pinstripe: Clemson vs. Penn State, Dec. 27

Any way it finishes will be sad for two preseason championship hopefuls, but 20 on the Nits.

Fenway: UConn vs. Army, Dec. 27

The A-Game shows up — “A” as in Army, for 18.

Pop-Tarts: No. 12 BYU vs. No. 22 Georgia Tech, Dec. 27

Putting 19 on BYU, which should be thankful it isn’t playing Notre Dame.

Arizona: Miami (Ohio) vs. Fresno State, Dec. 27

Bowl season’s real FSU is good for 16.

New Mexico: North Texas vs. San Diego State, Dec. 27

UNT got close enough to the playoff to smell it — 17.

Gator: Missouri vs. No. 19 Virginia, Dec. 27

Virginia has the ranking. Mizzou, which gets a big ol’ 32, is better.

Texas: LSU vs. Houston, Dec. 27

A not-so-confident 9 on the Tigers. Brian Kelly can count his dough while he watches.

Birmingham: Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian State, Dec. 29

Download the App for 11.

Independence: Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech, Dec. 30

Easy call — all Tech, 29.

Music City: Tennessee vs. Illinois, Dec. 30

Feels like this means more to the Illini — 14.

Alamo: No. 16 USC vs. TCU, Dec. 30

Putting 13 on the Horned Frogs, who show out in their home state.

ReliaQuest: No. 23 Iowa vs. No. 14 Vanderbilt, Dec. 31

A 12 on Vandy QB Diego Pavia, who never stops balling.

Sun: Arizona State vs. Duke, Dec. 31

Sun Devils over Blue Devils by 25.

Citrus: No. 13 Texas vs. No. 18 Michigan, Dec. 31

Tougher-than-tough draw for the Wolverines — 31 on the Longhorns.

Las Vegas: Nebraska vs. No. 15 Utah, Dec. 31

Any century now, the Huskers will be really good again — Utes for 37 in a blowout.

Armed Forces: Texas State vs. Rice, Jan. 2

A double-digit spread equals 27 on Texas State.

Liberty: Navy vs. Cincinnati, Jan. 2

Throwing 10 on Navy if only for last year’s seismic bowl “W” against Oklahoma.

Mayo: Mississippi State vs. Wake Forest, Jan. 2

Wake for 2, and wake me when it’s over.

Holiday: Arizona vs. SMU, Jan. 2

SMU, that’s who, for a whopping 3.